Ramming a Climate Bill Through Senate Committee is Politically Risky

This morning the Senate Environment and Public Works Committee reported the Kerry-Boxer climate bill (S. 1733: "Clean Energy Jobs and American Power Act) in a rather unusual fashion. Committee Republicans were insisting on further economic analysis of the legislation--a courtesy they extended to Democrats several years ago during the ultimately unsuccessful Clean Skies debate--before moving to mark up the bill. Chairman Boxer refused to wait and forced the bill through the committee despite a GOP boycott of the markup.

The 12 committee Democrats voted 10-1-1 to report the bill: Baucus (D-MT) voted against it, and Carper (D-DE) didn't make it to the vote.
The following committee Democrats voted for it: Barbara Boxer (CA), Frank Lautenberg (NJ), Benjamin Cardin (MD), Bernie Sanders (VT), Amy Klobuchar (MN), Sheldon Whitehouse (RI), Tom Udall (NM), Jeff Merkley (OR), Kirsten Gillibrand (NY), and Arlen Specter (PA).

Without getting into the minimal benefits and large costs of the legislation, this vote appears to carry significant political risk for several committee members.

Baucus, Lautenberg, Merkley, and Udall aren't up for reelection until 2014, so this vote is unlikely to have much significance by then. The same is probably true for the 2012 class--Cardin, Klobuchar, Sanders, and Whitehouse--except in the (hopefully) unlikely event that the economy fails to recover by then.

For those up in 2010, however, facing the very real possibility that recovery will be slow and unemployment remain high for the next year, this vote is a bit of a gamble: whether the base energizing effects on turnout will outweigh the loss of swing voters, most of whom quite reasonably are more concerned about employment at the moment.

And then there's the inconvenient truth that global surface temperatures have been stable for the last decade and this year has been rather cold in the United States. Note that I'm making no claim regarding the future of global temperatures, simply laying out the factors that will affect voter perceptions at the polls next fall.

CQ Politics Race Ratings for 2010 Senate Races considers Boxer's California seat to be "safe", Gillbrand's New York seat as "Likely Democrat", and Specter's in Pennsylvania as "Leans Democrat." Yet polling on Real Clear Politics has Specter slightly behind fmr. Rep. Pat Toomey, and that's before his primary with Rep. Joe Sestak (and a former admiral), which is likely to force Specter further to the left.

In New York, Gillibrand could plausibly be defeated by either former Governor George Pataki or former NYC mayor Rudy Giuliani. Neither has officially entered the race.

Boxer seems to be in the best shape of the three, although her advantage over presumed GOP challenger and former HP CEO Carly Fiorina has narrowed significantly in recent months.

Of couse, a year in politics is a very long time, and a lot could happen between now and then. Nonetheless, when reelection or early retirement can depend on a few points, a vote on a bill that many voters rightly perceive to damage American competitiveness and productivity is highly unlikely to improve these senators' prospects.

And to have the vote within 48 hours of major Republican victories in New Jersey and Virginia seems bizarre. Then again, maybe the writing on the wall says if they don't get it done now, they never will.